Malaysia’s haze risk could now extend until May 2027, later than the previous projection of March, as updated weather data points to a longer period of hot and dry conditions linked to Super El Niño.
According to China Press, MetMalaysia’s National Weather and Geophysics Operations Centre senior deputy director Lan Nang said the latest data suggests the dry spell may persist until May next year, increasing the risk of both local and transboundary haze.
Haze risk previously expected to last until March
Lan said MetMalaysia had earlier expected the haze risk to continue until around March 2027.
However, the latest data now indicates that the risk could be prolonged by another two months.
He explained that haze conditions will ultimately depend on the weather at the time, as well as factors that could trigger fires, including open burning and peatland fires.
Peatland areas could become more vulnerable
One of the biggest concerns is peatland.
Lan explained that peat soil can lose moisture quickly during prolonged dry periods, making it much easier for fires to start and spread.
He added that if dry conditions continue from February to May without sufficient rainfall, the risk of fires could rise further, which in turn would increase the likelihood of haze affecting Malaysia.
MetMalaysia has similarly warned that hotter and drier conditions associated with El Niño can reduce rainfall and raise the risk of water shortages, forest fires, peatland fires and haze.
Super El Niño expected to affect rainfall patterns
Lan also said Super El Niño is expected to reach a relevant level from around November 2026, with significant effects on Malaysia’s rainfall patterns.
The impact could be especially noticeable during periods that would normally bring heavier rain to parts of the country.
According to MetMalaysia, moderate or strong El Niño conditions can cause below-average rainfall in Sabah and Sarawak during both the Southwest and Northeast monsoons, while Peninsular Malaysia can also experience drier-than-usual conditions during certain periods.
Past Super El Niño events brought sharp rainfall drops
Lan pointed to previous Super El Niño events, saying rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia had fallen by around 30%, while Sabah recorded reductions of up to 45%.
He said such conditions could not only trigger heatwaves, particularly in areas such as Gua Musang, Jeli, Kuala Krai and Kemaman, but could also reduce water storage levels and affect water supply along the east coast.
MetMalaysia’s latest long-range outlook currently covers the period from November 2026 to April 2027, with updated monthly rainfall forecasts available as conditions develop.
It does not mean continuous haze until May
The projection does not mean Malaysia will be covered in haze continuously until May.
Rather, the risk of haze could remain elevated through that period if hot and dry weather persists and fires break out locally or in neighbouring countries.
Lan said the actual situation will depend on rainfall, fire activity and other weather conditions over the coming months.
For Malaysians, it means the haze season that was initially expected to ease by March may now remain a concern for longer, especially if Super El Niño continues to bring prolonged dry weather into the first half of 2027.
